Trip

This is Trip Gulick, a rock star HIV doc and researcher talking about swine flu on Countdown. In general I think he hits the right tone. It does seem important to me to remember that 1) the numbers just aren't in yet. Such as the numbers are, they are improving (most cases manageable- everywhere). The lack of community (called herd) immunity increases the chances of it being more problematic 3) the seasonality of flu outbreaks might affect its dynamics- the first phase of this story focused on the higher than normal number of flu deaths for this time of the year. 3) part of the story of some of the big flu outbreaks is a wave phenomena, with an early milder phase followed in some time by a more widespread and severe illness. It is