Vaccine Update

I admit it it. My first reaction to this story was, 'told ya so!' My second reaction wasn't much more evolved- something along the lines of 'duh!' Eventually I was able to access a deeper part of my humanity and feel genuine disappointment that the vaccine breakthrough is even less than it appeared on first blush. 

To review: Almost 2 weeks ago, the mainstream press ran stories trumpeting the first ever successful HIV vaccine test results. The basic story was that researchers combined two failed vaccines, using a two step prime-boost method, and tested them in Thailand. It was a large, expensive, randomized, controlled trial- enrolling 16,000 people and following them for five years. 

The press release touted an approximately 1/3 reduction in the number of new infections among people in the vaccine arm, compared to those who received a dummy or placebo vaccine. If validated a vaccine with even this modest level of protection would indeed be a breakthrough.

I was initially skeptical for two reasons. First, the vaccines used in the study had failed in previous studies, and combining two ineffective vaccines seemed highly unlikely to result in a successful vaccine. The second reason is some of the people involved in this study, were with Vaxgen when they engaged in unethical data spinning, in a desperate attempt to secure more funding. 

So, I was not surprised when I read that another analysis of these data showed that the results failed to meet statistical significance, and that analysis was suppressed. This second analysis removed anyone from the calculations who did not strictly follow the study protocol. Analyzing the results this way amounts to a strength test for the original analysis- a vaccine that is truly protective, even modestly so should test out so in either way. 

The fact that it didn't and that the researchers chose not to share that analysis deepens my skepticism. 

And while I felt a bit of schadenfreude, I do feel an honest sense of disappointment. The HIV

 vaccine effort could really use some good news- a proverbial shot in the arm if you will forgive me. But this kind of data cooking is exactly not what is needed. Science relies on honesty, failed studies are often just as valuable as successful ones, when they deepen our understanding. A full, unbiased understanding of this, or any study might serve as something to build on. Nothing of meaning can be built on scientific dishonesty.